- + Flash Report: February Jobless Data Suggest Low-Hire, Low-Fire Stasis Continues—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected the February jobless rate, which ticked...
- + The Effects of a “Low-Fire, Low-Hire” Economy on Workers—In a 'low-fire, low-hire' economy, underemployment and longer-term unemployment have grown while wage growth has slowed.
- + The Dual Mandate in Conflict: Balancing Current Tensions between Inflation and Employment—An analysis examines inflation and labor market factors testing both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, as well as FOMC projections for the federal fund...
- + Understanding Statistical Significance in Monthly Unemployment Data—This analysis discusses the importance of understanding unemployment data’s statistical properties when interpreting the jobs report’s monthly results...
- + The Declining Convenience Yield and Quantitative Tightening—The convenience yield represents the interest investors are willing to forgo for highly liquid securities. How did QT affect the yield on government b...
- + U.S. Import Price Dynamics Following the 2025 Tariffs—This analysis examines how 2025 tariffs affected U.S. import prices because of price changes by existing foreign suppliers and the shift to alternativ...
- + Tracking Banking Access Using the Bank On National Data Hub—Bank On account openings surpassed 4.8 million in 2024—a 20% increase from 2023—according to data reported by financial institutions to our BOND Hub.
- + Inflation and the Accuracy of Public Debt Forecasts—An analysis of public debt projections by the CBO examines how forecasting divergences can differ in a high-inflation versus a low-inflation environme...
- + When Houses Outrun Paychecks: The Lost Decades of Housing Affordability—An analysis of housing and household income data from 2000 to 2023 finds that in most U.S. counties, the cost of buying a house has outpaced local inc...
- + Flash Report: January Jobless Data May Signal Improving Labor Market—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected January’s jobless rate, which fell to 4...
- + Do Government Shutdowns Affect Subsequent Data Revisions?—This analysis looks at GDP revisions around U.S. government shutdowns to gauge whether these funding lapses seem to affect the quality of economic dat...
- + Using 211 Data to Gauge Eighth District Economic Conditions—An analysis describes households’ economic health using data on 211 calls for assistance with housing, utilities, food, transportation, health care an...
- + A Look at Recent Developments in the Federal Fiscal Balance—A brief analysis of Treasury data shows a reduced primary deficit last year because of increased tariff revenue and flat government spending.
- + Beyond Young Adults: How Are Other Groups of U.S. Workers Faring?—An analysis looks at which factors—for example, job openings—might explain recent increases in unemployment for different groups of workers.
- + The Evolution of Income Differences over the Life Cycle—This analysis finds income differences still grow with age but far less sharply than in the past, as differences have become more front-loaded earlier...
- + Banking Analytics: Core Deposit Growth Accelerated in 2025—Core deposits accelerated 4% at U.S. commercial banks during the first three quarters of 2025, up from 1.5% during the same period in 2024.
- + The Shifting U.S. Import Landscape: Recent Changes in Tariffs and Trade—This analysis examines the changes in effective tariff rates and import levels for major U.S. trade partners and types of goods since early 2025.
- + Why AI Advancements May Push Some Workers Out of the Labor Force—A simple economic model provides a way to think about the potential effects of AI improvements in the long run. These possible effects include making ...
- + Tracking AI’s Contribution to GDP Growth—This analysis suggests recent investments in AI-related categories have contributed significantly to the real U.S. economic growth in the first nine m...
- + Flash Report: U.S. Jobless Rate Ticked Down in December—An analysis looks at December’s unemployment rate, which declined to 4.4%, and payroll employment, which increased by 50,000 jobs.
- + Banking Analytics: Banks Record Uptick in Unfunded CRE Commitments—As of Sept. 30, U.S. banks have reversed a nine-quarter decline in unfunded commercial real estate commitments with a second consecutive quarter of gr...
- + What Is Affecting the CPS Data on Shifts in Immigrant and Native-Born Populations?—This analysis suggests that CPS estimates of a sharp drop in the U.S. immigrant population and a surge in the native-born population in 2025 are overs...
- + Sources of Intergenerational Persistence in College Attainment—Financial resources and cognitive and noncognitive abilities may help explain why children tend to achieve levels of education similar to their parent...
- + A Look at U.S. Services Export Trends—An analysis traces the growth of U.S. net exports in the services sector since 1960 and identifies the country’s top services export categories by val...
- + Revisiting Professional Forecasters’ Past Performance and the Outlook for 2026—So far, the 2025 forecasts have turned out to be rather accurate. For 2026, professional forecasters expect 1.9% GDP growth and a 2.9% increase in the...
- + Flash Report: U.S. Unemployment Rose Moderately in November—An analysis looks at November’s unemployment rate, which rose to 4.6%, and payroll employment, which increased by 64,000 jobs.
- + Young Adults and the Softening U.S. Labor Market: A Warning Sign?—Fewer job openings in a softening U.S. labor market have disproportionately increased unemployment among young adults—with or without college degrees.
- + What Are the Characteristics of Banks with Large Unrealized Losses?—An analysis suggests banks with significant exposure to unrealized bond losses rely more on deposits, hold less-liquid assets and have smaller capital...
- + Community Banking Conference Spotlights Research on Bank Failures—Learn about research, particularly around bank failures’ effects on businesses and the economy, presented at the 2025 Community Banking Research Confe...
- + Regulated Payment Stablecoins Become a Reality in the U.S.—An article that first appeared in The Arkansas Banker discusses stablecoins and the regulatory framework signed into law this summer that provides f...
- + Analyzing Japan’s $550 Billion Pledge to Invest in the U.S.—Japan’s pledge to invest $550 billion in the U.S. may end up being costly for the Asian country when the deal’s present value and hypothetical investm...
- + Flash Report: Unemployment and Payroll Both Rise in September—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected September’s jobless rate, which rose to...
- + The Beveridge Curve’s Predictive Power: Why Job Vacancy Types Matter for Monetary Policy—An analysis looks at the sharp rise in job vacancies since 2010 and what it means for using the Beveridge curve to assess labor market tightness.
- + The State of Generative AI Adoption in 2025—A new survey shows generative AI usage continues to grow. In the past 12 months, the overall adoption rate rose 10 percentage points to 54.6% of adult...
- + Navigating in the Dark: Using High-Frequency Private Data to Track the Labor Market—High-frequency data sources like Homebase offer a real-time look at trends in the U.S. labor market, which is very valuable when official data are una...
- + Banking Analytics: Unrealized Losses Decrease Again at U.S. Banks—Unrealized losses as a percentage of total securities at U.S. banks fell again in the second quarter of 2025, though they remain a risk for some insti...
- + Banking Analytics: Understanding Credit Risk with the Texas Ratio—Developed in the 1980s during the Texas banking crisis, the Texas ratio offers an indicator of a bank’s health by measuring the institution’s troubled...
- + The Role of Single-Family Rentals in the U.S. Housing Market—More single-family homes are being bought by investors to rent out. An analysis examines how this affects renters, home values and the U.S. housing ma...
- + Is the U.S. in an Above-Target Inflation Regime?—Though U.S. inflation has fallen sharply since mid-2022, this analysis finds that above-rate inflation remains persistent and broad.
- + How Tariffs Are Affecting Prices in 2025—A model suggests that although tariffs have been only partially passed through to consumers, they already have exerted measurable pressure on prices.
- + Are U.S. Treasuries Still “Convenient”?—The convenience yield reflects the value that investors place on the liquidity and safety of U.S. Treasuries. Three different measures indicate this y...
- + Understanding the “Swoosh”-Shaped Yield Curve for Treasuries—An analysis of the yield curve for Treasuries suggests that while the market sees a gradual decline in short-term interest rates, it also expects rate...
- + Banking Analytics: Modifications to Commercial Real Estate Loans Rise—As of June 30, the amount of commercial real estate loans whose lending terms were modified by U.S. banks had risen 66% over the past year.
- + How Common Are Monthly Payroll Job Losses during Business Expansions?—This analysis of the frequency of monthly job losses during U.S. economic expansions finds periodic declines in payroll employment are a regular occur...
- + What Causes “Jumps” in Stock Prices?—An analysis examines which types of macroeconomic announcements tend to be most often associated with jumps in U.S. stock prices.
- + How Well Are Inflation Expectations Anchored? Two Datasets Compared—What anchors inflation expectations? An analysis breaks down how anticipated drift from the Fed’s 2% target and divergence among forecasts each contri...
- + Small Business Lending Trends and Banking Deserts, 2019-23—Explore evolving trends in small business lending, the impact of banking deserts and the shifting preferences of small firms toward larger banks.
- + Aggregate Implications of the Rise in Firms’ Custom Software Investments—U.S. firms’ investment in custom software has risen markedly. This analysis examines its effect on aggregate outcomes like sales concentration and pro...
- + Flash Report: August Jobless Rate Rises as Employment Conditions Soften Further—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected August’s jobless rate, which rose to 4....
- + Where Developing Nations Prone to Transnational Terrorism Stand in Foreign Aid and FDI—A study examines how numbers of transnational terrorism incidents in 25 developing economies align with inflows of foreign aid and foreign direct inve...
- + Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates—As a result of lower projected growth in net immigration, the U.S. economy may need to create fewer jobs to keep the unemployment rate stable this yea...
- + Is AI Contributing to Rising Unemployment? Evidence from Occupational Variation—Is AI driving job displacement? This analysis compares jobs’ theoretical AI exposure and actual AI adoption with changes in occupation-level unemploym...
- + Recent College Grads Bear Brunt of Labor Market Shifts—This year, young college graduates between ages 23 and 27 are experiencing jobless rates that are notably higher than the rates seen before the pandem...
As of 3/10/26 3:45am. Last new 3/9/26 8:52pm. Score: 379
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